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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."