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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.